Republicans could be facing real danger. It would be terrible for the party.
And Texas Republicans are scared to death of what this analyst just said on CNN.
Larry Sabato has spent decades listening to Texas Democrats insist that this is the year they finally break through. On Thursday night, the University of Virginia Center for Politics director decided the moment might actually be here.
Appearing on CNN’s Erin Burnett OutFront, Sabato declared that Democrat State Rep. James Talarico might just win his contest in Texas for the U.S. Senate.
The conversation turned on a brand-new Fox poll showing Republican Ken Paxton trailing Talarico.
“So, let me ask you about this poll that just came in here while we were talking in the past few minutes from Fox, Larry. The Republican Senate candidate, Ken Paxton, is now trailing the Democrat, James Talarico, in Texas. Ok, Texas. This is the first public poll where either candidate has hit the 50% mark. Ok. It’s Texas. It’s an incredible thing to see this. It’s also the end of July. Where do you see that race going,” Erin Burnett asked.
Sabato jumped right in:
“I’ve been around a long time. And since 1994, I’ve gotten call after call virtually every day from Texans in politics on the Democratic side, saying, ‘This is the year. We’re finally gonna do it.’ But you know what? I’m starting to believe it’s actually possible this year, not just because James Talarico is a great candidate, which he is, but Paxton is so awful. And I’m sorry to use that word.”
“But, you know, we used to have a word, a flaunter, meaning he’s a sinner who flaunts the sin. And that pretty much has been the way Paxton has conducted his public career. A lot of these donors won’t touch him. Notice, he’s not doing well at all raising money. It’s because they have family and friends and businesses to protect, and they really don’t want to identify themselves publicly with a candidate who has Paxton’s record.”
There it is. The permanent Washington media class has found its preferred storyline for Texas.
A young progressive state representative is suddenly the future, and the state’s elected attorney general is reduced to a cartoon villain whose mere existence supposedly scares away donors.
Paxton has spent years suing the Biden administration, fighting open borders, and challenging federal overreach at every turn.
That record is exactly why many grassroots conservatives in Texas support him. It is also exactly why the donor class in certain zip codes prefers candidates who keep their heads down and avoid confrontation.
Sabato’s sudden conversion is telling. For three decades he has heard the same hopeful chatter from Texas Democrats and watched it evaporate on election night.
Now one early poll and a candidate who talks smoothly on television is enough for him to declare the long-awaited breakthrough is at hand.
