The election chaos is just beginning. All expectations are now out the window.
Because President Biden just made the most insane 2024 election prediction a reality.
It’s truly important to look back at the results of the 2020 election when trying to gauge the pulse of the 2024 election ahead of the November contests less than four months away now. There are plenty of differences to be sure. Obviously the incumbent is flipped, there is no pandemic panic, the economy is in a totally different (not necessarily better) position now than it was four years ago.
All that said, there’s a ton that’s similar too. Obviously the biggest factor is that it’s likely going to be a straight rematch of 2020, assuming Democrats don’t try to suddenly pull the rug out from under Joe Biden at the last minute before the Democrat convention. That’s still a possibility, but it’s hard to say how that’s going to play out right now. For now, you have to assume Joe Biden is staying in, largely because he is the one with the power of the delegates right now.
After the dust settled in 2020, if you would have told anyone that Joe Biden was going to essentially lose all of the swing states he had just won and would also be at risk of losing major Democrat strongholds like Minnesota, you would’ve been called utterly nuts. That makes sense too. Minnesota went for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris over Donald Trump and Mike Pence by more than seven points. That’s a massive margin these days.
Today, however, there are reports suggesting that Minnesota is now on the table for Donald Trump to win. Democrat strongholds that are absolutely necessary for Joe Biden to even sniff a win are on the table for the surging Donald Trump, who apparently has nine political lives like a cat. He’s no alley cat like Joe Biden claims though.
Today, we're making six changes to our Electoral College Ratings.
AZ: Toss Up to Lean R
GA: Toss Up to Lean R
MN: Likely D to Lean D#NE02: Likely D to Lean D
NH: Likely D to Lean D
NV: Toss Up to Lean R@amyewalter on the state of the race post-debate: https://t.co/AAoW23wKWC— Cook Political Report (@CookPolitical) July 9, 2024
There’s little post-debate data to go on right now, so much of this shift into Donald Trump’s favor has been the result of everything leading up to the debate and not including it. Meaning, it’s about to get much worse for Joe Biden and the Democrats. Don’t just take our word for it, listen from the mouths of the Democrat allies at CNN themselves.
CNN Political Director David Chalian Highlights Growing Complexity in Presidential Race for Joe Biden
In a detailed analysis on Monday, CNN political director David Chalian cautioned that the 2024 presidential race is becoming increasingly challenging for President Joe Biden as traditionally Democratic-leaning states are showing signs of becoming more competitive.
Over recent months, former President Donald Trump has consistently led Biden in key swing states and across national polls. Following their recent debate, Trump has widened his lead in at least five polls. During a segment on CNN News Central, Chalian noted that states typically seen as “light blue,” such as Minnesota, Virginia, and New Mexico, might now be in play for Trump.
“Pre-debate, Donald Trump had a two-point edge in a poll of polls, an average of national polls, 49% to 47%. That’s a pretty close race. You see post-debate, Donald Trump has stayed the same. He didn’t grow his support with the debate, but Joe Biden took on some water,” Chalian said. “He is down to 44%, and that’s a five-point lead in the poll of polls for Donald Trump. So to say that the debate had no impact, I don’t think is reflected by a totality of the polls. Also, if you look at the electoral map, guys, and the road to 270, it’s only going to get more complicated.”
Chalian continued, emphasizing the shifting battleground landscape. “Look here, this is our latest assessment of the race as the yellow are the true battlegrounds,” he explained. “You have some leaning red states that are clearly heavily contested states as well, like Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada, Michigan. But we are now talking about the light blue states, perhaps Minnesota, Virginia, New Mexico, that are leaning Democratic. Now, they may be coming on line as more competitive in this moment. We need to see how true that is. If that happens, that means more resources that Biden has to spend in a greater number of states than he’s currently spending. If the map expands against him, that’s not a position of strength heading into this fall campaign.”
CNN's David Chalian Warns Race Will 'Get More Complicated' For Biden As 'Light Blue States' Turn 'Competitive' pic.twitter.com/qZP2ySFBXv
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) July 8, 2024
The aftermath of the debate has seen Biden lose his lead in New Mexico and Virginia, while Trump continues to maintain an edge in states such as New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. This shift is supported by an internal Democrat poll from Open Labs that was leaked on Tuesday.
In addition, pollster Frank Luntz remarked in June on the surprising competitiveness of the race in Minnesota, where Trump currently leads by 3% in a two-way race, according to the RealClearPolling average.
“Minnesota is a reliable Democratic state, it votes Democrat in every presidential campaign. In poll after poll, I see Trump within two or three points in Minnesota. I don’t think the media understands exactly what’s going on right now,” Luntz said.
As the race progresses, the evolving dynamics in these key states will be crucial in determining the eventual outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
No matter which way you slice it right now, though, Donald Trump is absolutely well ahead of Joe Biden right now. What a stunning turn of events.
The Conservative Column will keep you updated on any major 2024 election news.
