The Russkis have it out for us. And things could be changing very quickly.
Now Russia is preparing for a sudden attack on NATO and time is of the essence.
A Warning From Latvia That Deserves The West’s Full Attention
Latvian intelligence issued a striking assessment to Fox News Digital this week, and it is worth reading carefully because it describes a situation that is both less alarming and more alarming than the headlines it has generated.
Less alarming: Russia is not prepared for a conventional war against NATO. Latvian intelligence is explicit about this. “Currently, there are no military threats to Latvia. We are not concerned about a full-scale invasion right now. Russia would need three to five years, even if the war in Ukraine ended today, to rebuild sufficient capabilities.”
More alarming: Russia is preparing hybrid provocations — drones, missiles, cyberattacks, sabotage — against the Baltic states or Poland, specifically designed to pressure NATO countries into reducing their support for Ukraine. And the man authorizing those provocations may be making decisions based on a fundamentally distorted picture of reality.
“The biggest concern is miscalculation. Russian institutions are telling Putin what he wants to hear, and that creates a dangerous cycle that can lead to foolish and senseless decisions,” Latvian intelligence said. “We see more and more signs that Putin wants to receive only positive news. He is isolated, and that makes decision-making even more problematic as decisions are not based on the real situation.”
This is the specific scenario that should keep Western defense planners awake. Not the scenario where Putin deliberately and knowingly escalates to NATO Article 5 territory — that is a risk he understands and presumably wants to avoid. The scenario where he authorizes a “limited” hybrid provocation based on an intelligence picture that significantly underestimates NATO’s resolve to respond, and then discovers he has miscalculated when the response arrives.
The Hybrid War Already Underway
Polish officials who spoke separately with Fox News Digital during recent reporting in Poland confirmed that Russia’s hybrid campaign against NATO’s eastern flank is not a future threat — it is a current reality. Deputy Foreign Minister Marcin Bosacki described a pattern that includes assassinations, drone incursions, cyberattacks, and attacks on critical infrastructure. He specifically cited a Russian-instigated cyberattack on Polish energy infrastructure “to black out part of Poland.”
Ambassador Krzysztof Olendzki described the Belarus border as part of a sustained Russian and Belarusian campaign to weaponize illegal migration against NATO countries — a particularly insidious form of pressure that exploits the alliance’s internal political divisions over immigration without triggering the explicit military thresholds that would invoke Article 5.
Latvian intelligence’s own Constitution Protection Bureau, the SAB, released a public report documenting Russia’s escalating “lawfare” campaign — the use of courts, international legal institutions, and manufactured legal claims to pressure Western governments. This includes Russian analysis of Iran’s experience challenging Western sanctions at the International Court of Justice, and plans for a formal ICJ complaint against the Baltic states alleging discrimination against Russians and Russian speakers. The complaint, SAB notes, is “highly manipulative” in its use of international law and is designed not primarily to win in court but to build a narrative of Western aggression that could later justify more active measures.
“Russia believes the Baltic States are governed by pro-American elites who are disconnected from their own people,” Latvian intelligence said. “They made a similar mistake about Ukraine before the invasion, which is why this perception worries us.”
Sanctions — And Why Latvia Wants More Of Them
One piece of the Latvian assessment deserves more attention than it has received in Western capitals. Despite Moscow’s persistent public insistence that Western sanctions have failed to dent Russia’s war economy, Latvian intelligence’s internal read is the opposite.
“Russia says publicly that sanctions do not matter, but its own internal assessments show that sanctions are biting,” Latvian intelligence said. “They may not change Putin’s mindset, but they limit Russia’s financial resources and thus opportunities and force Russia to make difficult choices regarding recruitment, military spending, and pressure on businesses. Its war economy is a crumbling ‘house of cards.'”
Latvia’s prescription, accordingly, is not military escalation but economic pressure. “If you want to push Russia toward a peace deal that is acceptable to Ukraine and the West, sanctions are the right mechanism. We need more international pressure on Russia through sanctions.”
That is not a recommendation to ignore. NATO’s eastern members have consistently been the most accurately calibrated assessors of Russian intentions and capabilities — they were right about the invasion when Western capitals were still debating whether Putin would actually do it. When Latvia says the sanctions are working and Russia is preparing hybrid provocations that could trigger miscalculation, both parts of that assessment should be taken seriously.
