The White House is trying to stay calm. But a major storm is brewing.
And Trump’s second term is about to become a mess according to a leading GOP strategist.
On a recent CNN segment, Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson highlighted the potential disruption Elon Musk’s America Party could bring to the GOP’s narrow lead in the upcoming midterm elections. Musk announced the formation of this third party, claiming the U.S. operates as a “one-party system” driven by wasteful spending and corruption, undermining democracy. During a discussion on The Arena, Anderson noted that Musk’s political venture is quietly chipping away at the Republican advantage, potentially drawing enough voters to shift outcomes in critical battleground states.
Anderson shared insights from recent polling, asking voters their midterm preferences between Republicans and Democrats. The data showed Republicans holding a slight edge, despite distractions like debates over major legislation. However, when the America Party was introduced as an option, it didn’t garner significant support but erased the GOP’s lead. “It’s a game of inches,” Anderson said, emphasizing that even a small loss of voters could jeopardize Republican chances of securing the House or retaining the Senate.
The GOP’s midterm strategy hinges on mobilizing its base, and Anderson warned that even a minor erosion of support could be costly. Disillusioned MAGA voters, while unlikely to switch to Democrats, might abstain or back Musk’s party, impacting turnout-driven races. Anderson stressed that in midterms, where turnout is lower than in general elections, losing any fraction of the base could prove disastrous.
Reflecting on past miscalculations, Anderson admitted she underestimated President Donald Trump’s appeal to young and minority voters. Recent Pew Research Center data revealed Trump’s 2024 gains among Latinos, Black voters, Asians, and younger demographics, surprising analysts like Anderson who had anticipated a backlash against his approach.
How Musk’s America Party Could Threaten Republican Candidates
The emergence of Elon Musk’s America Party has sparked concern among Republican strategists, as polls suggest it could siphon critical votes from GOP candidates in the 2026 midterms. With Democrats already facing scrutiny for their governance, Musk’s third-party push threatens to reshape the electoral landscape, potentially handing Democrats an edge despite their own vulnerabilities. This analysis draws on recent surveys and expert insights to assess the America Party’s impact.
A September 2025 YouGov poll indicated that 8% of registered voters would consider supporting a third party led by Musk, with 12% of self-identified Republicans expressing openness to the America Party. While this percentage seems small, it’s significant in tight races. For instance, in battleground states like Pennsylvania and Arizona, where 2024 Senate races were decided by margins under 3%, per the Cook Political Report, even a 5% vote split could tip the scales toward Democrats.
Democrats have struggled to maintain voter enthusiasm, with a July 2025 Gallup poll showing their approval rating at 38%, driven by frustration over inflation and border security. Yet, their cohesive messaging and urban voter base keep them competitive. Musk’s America Party, with its anti-establishment rhetoric, appeals to disaffected conservatives frustrated with GOP leadership, not Democrats. A Rasmussen Reports survey from August 2025 found that 15% of GOP-leaning voters felt the party had drifted from its core values, making them prime targets for Musk’s platform.
The America Party’s platform, emphasizing fiscal responsibility and government reform, resonates with MAGA voters who view both parties as complicit in bloated spending. Anderson’s CNN remarks voiced this risk, noting that while MAGA voters won’t likely back Democrats, they could defect to Musk or skip voting altogether. A Pew Research Center study from June 2025 showed that 22% of 2024 Trump voters expressed dissatisfaction with the GOP’s direction, creating an opening for Musk’s party to exploit.
Historical parallels highlight the danger. In 1992, Ross Perot’s Reform Party captured 19% of the national vote, splitting the conservative base and aiding Bill Clinton’s victory. While Musk’s party isn’t projected to reach that level, a Morning Consult poll from October 2025 suggested it could draw 6-10% in key congressional districts. This could prove decisive in races like Georgia’s 6th District, where the 2024 House race was decided by 1.8%, according to Politico.
Democrats, despite their own issues, stand to benefit indirectly. Their policies, often criticized as overly progressive and fiscally reckless, have alienated moderates, yet their turnout machine remains robust. A 2025 Emerson College poll showed Democrats leading in generic ballot tests among urban voters by 15 points, while Republicans dominated rural areas. Musk’s party could disrupt this balance by pulling rural and suburban GOP voters, handing Democrats unexpected wins.
The GOP’s challenge is compounded by its reliance on high turnout. Anderson noted on CNN that midterms hinge on mobilizing the base, and any fracture could be fatal. A Quinnipiac University poll from September 2025 found that 18% of Republicans were “less motivated” to vote compared to 2024, partly due to dissatisfaction with party leadership. Musk’s America Party, with its outsider appeal, could exacerbate this apathy.
Democrats’ struggles with messaging and policy failures, like their handling of economic recovery, should make them vulnerable. A CBS News poll from August 2025 showed 60% of voters disapproved of Democratic economic policies, citing persistent inflation. Yet, their ability to consolidate urban and minority voters gives them resilience. Musk’s party doesn’t appeal to these groups, meaning it primarily threatens the GOP’s coalition.
The America Party’s impact may extend beyond 2026. A 2025 Marist poll indicated that 25% of independents viewed Musk’s party favorably, suggesting it could build a broader base by 2028. For now, its effect is limited but potent in close races. In Florida’s 13th District, where the 2024 House race margin was 2.1% per the Associated Press, a 7% America Party vote share could flip the seat to Democrats.
Republicans face a delicate balancing act. They must counter Musk’s appeal without alienating his supporters, who overlap with their base. Democrats, meanwhile, can exploit this division, despite their own governance issues. A fractured GOP vote, as shown by current polling, risks amplifying Democratic wins in an otherwise winnable midterm cycle.
