This election cycle has been a unique one to say the least. But we’re not done with all of the surprises.
And a 2024 election bombshell just turned the race on its head.
A new poll commissioned by the New York Post reveals that Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump by four percentage points nationwide, but despite her narrow lead, majorities of likely voters still prefer Trump when it comes to handling the nation’s most pressing issues like inflation, immigration, and jobs.
The Leger survey shows Harris ahead with 51% to Trump’s 47%, a four-point margin that has stayed consistent since August.
Yet, when voters were asked who is “most ready to lead” on Inauguration Day 2025, Trump edges out Harris, 51% to 49%.
This slight advantage signals that while Harris might be polling well overall, her ability to inspire confidence in leadership is still being challenged by Trump, particularly among those who prioritize strength and decisiveness.
Harris enjoys strong support among younger voters, with 57% of those aged 18-34 and 53% of those aged 35-54 backing her. On the other hand, Trump commands 52% of the 55+ demographic.
There’s also a sharp gender divide: most women (56%) favor Harris, while most men (51%) prefer Trump. But these demographics may not be enough to overcome the stark contrast in policy preferences where Trump is clearly dominating.
On key issues, Trump holds significant leads. A majority of voters (54%) trust Trump to handle inflation and rising prices, compared to just 46% for Harris.
And on jobs and the economy, another critical concern, Trump’s lead widens, with 57% of voters believing he’s the better choice over Harris (44%).
When it comes to illegal immigration — one of the thorniest issues during the Biden administration — 57% prefer Trump’s approach, while only 43% support Harris, despite her role as the administration’s border czar.
Trump is also seen as a stronger leader overall, with 55% of voters describing him this way, compared to Harris, who is viewed as “reasonable” (58%) and “honest” (53%).
Voters do give Harris credit for being more likely to unite the country, with 52% believing she could bridge divides.
But on many key issues, voters clearly believe Trump’s experience and policy stance make him more capable of steering the nation in the right direction.
Harris does hold advantages on specific issues that align with Democratic priorities.
She leads on handling guns (51%), civil rights (53%), public schools (53%), fair elections (54%), health care affordability (54%), and climate change (58%).
Notably, she scores her highest mark (60%) among voters concerned with access to abortion, a central issue in the 2024 race. But whether these issue-specific victories can sway an electorate that overwhelmingly prioritizes economic and border security remains uncertain.
Favorability ratings also tell a divided story. Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, both have higher favorability numbers than Trump and his vice-presidential pick, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio). However, Trump continues to suffer from the highest unfavorable rating at 50%, followed by Harris at 41%, Vance at 40%, and Walz with the lowest negative rating at 28%.
With voters nearly split on who will win the 2024 election, the race remains highly contentious. Forty percent of likely voters predict a Harris victory, while 39% anticipate Trump reclaiming the White House, leaving a significant 19% undecided. Interestingly, more voters express concerns about Trump returning to office (43%) than they do about Harris winning (34%), signaling the polarizing nature of the former president’s potential comeback.
The poll, conducted by Leger from Sept. 27-29, surveyed 1,010 U.S. adults and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.08%.
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