The election may not be over yet. But Harris is in trouble.
And the door is closing on Kamala Harris’s chances to win the election.
Analysis of Kamala Harris’s Electoral College Path
In a recent discussion on Newsmax, political analyst Mark Halperin addressed the challenging road ahead for Vice President Kamala Harris as she vies for an Electoral College victory. Currently, Harris is facing stiff competition, trailing slightly behind former President Donald Trump in five of the top seven swing states. She only maintains narrow leads in crucial battlegrounds like Michigan and Wisconsin, as highlighted by RealClearPolitics polling averages.
On the program Wake Up America, Halperin emphasized the importance of these states for Harris’s campaign. He noted that to secure a win against Trump, her strategy may need to focus on sweeping Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, especially since Trump holds advantages in the Sun Belt swing states.
“I don’t think it’s impossible for her to win some of the Sun Belt states and I don’t think she’s given up,” Halperin remarked. “She’s got so much money and it’s still coming in that she can fully fund those states. But if you’re asking about their Electoral College calculations, they’re certainly not emphasizing the Sun Belt.”
Halperin also referenced a time when there was speculation that a Sun Belt strategy might serve Harris better than it did for President Joe Biden. However, he pointed out that the campaign appears to be heavily focused on securing victories in the Midwest: “If they’re not 100% down to winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, they’re pretty close to it at this point.”
As Harris’s chances in the larger Sun Belt states appear to diminish, Trump gains more options for reaching the critical 270 electoral votes. “The reality of the private polling, which differs from the public polling on both sides — and Trump is, you know — got a chance to win all three of the Midwestern states, the Great Lake states,” Halperin noted. “And he just probably will need one to win it. And he leads a movement, she doesn’t. And doubts about her continue.”
The tight race in the swing states has also drawn criticism from statistician Nate Silver, who expressed skepticism about the reliability of current polling methods. In a recent statement, he highlighted the problematic nature of polling results that seem overly uniform across states.
“I don’t think we’re going to learn very much in this last week of the polling. In fact, I kind of trust pollsters less,” Silver stated. “Every time a pollster, ‘Oh, every state is just a plus one. Every single state’s a tie.’ No, you’re f***ing herding. You’re cheating. You’re cheating. Your numbers aren’t all going to come out at exactly one-point leads when you’re sampling 800 people over dozens of surveys. You are lying. You’re putting your f***ing finger on the scale.”
Harris In Weakest Position For Any Democrat In Decades
While the election is not over, and either Presidential candidate could still eek out a win at the end of the day, it is also true that Kamala Harris is currently in the weakest position for any Democrat since 2004. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was dominating the polls and the momentum when she lost.
The 2020 election was almost as close as it could have been, but heading into that Election Day Joe Biden was in a much stronger position than Kamala Harris currently is. Harris is being forced to play defense and hope that three states that voted for Trump in 2016 all go her way.
That’s the key part, all three of the “Blue Wall” states must go her way or she’s basically dead in the water.
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