So far the Trump admin has been effective and strong. But that may not last forever.
Because the Trump White House is skittish about the one problem that could undo the Trump presidency for good.
As President Donald Trump settles into his second term, the Republican Party is already laser-focused on the 2026 midterm elections. With slim majorities in both the House and Senate, GOP leaders understand that holding onto power is essential to advancing Trump’s ambitious agenda on border security, economic growth, and energy independence. Losing ground could hand Democrats the tools to obstruct these initiatives, stalling the momentum built from the 2024 landslide.
The stakes couldn’t be higher. Historical trends show that the president’s party often loses seats in midterms, but Republicans are determined to buck that pattern. Trump’s early executive actions, including tariffs on imports and expedited permitting for energy projects, have energized the base and delivered quick wins for American workers. Yet, without congressional support, these policies risk being watered down or reversed if Democrats stage a comeback.
In 2024, Democrats suffered a crushing defeat that reshaped the political landscape. Vice President Kamala Harris underperformed by millions of votes compared to Joe Biden in 2020, leading to a red wave across counties nationwide. More than 90 percent of counties shifted toward Trump, with significant gains among Hispanic and Black voters – Trump narrowed the gap with Hispanics to just 3 points.
The Democratic Party’s voter registration plunged by over 4.5 million in recent years, exacerbating their woes. Analyses point to economic concerns like inflation as key drivers, with exit polls revealing that voters prioritized the economy above all else. This rout left Democrats in disarray, holding onto slim hopes in blue strongholds but facing a GOP-controlled Congress eager to enact change.
Trump’s victory wasn’t just electoral; it was a mandate. Republicans flipped the Senate and expanded their House majority, setting the stage for swift action on priorities like securing the border and unleashing American energy. Polls from PRRI and Pew confirm that Trump’s coalition broadened, drawing in working-class voters tired of Democratic policies on crime and immigration.
Now, in 2025, the Trump administration is hitting the ground running. Key priorities include making America safe again through enhanced law enforcement and border measures, alongside tariffs to protect domestic industries. Executive orders have streamlined mineral production and imposed duties on foreign goods, aiming to boost economic security and reduce reliance on adversaries like China.
Energy dominance is another cornerstone. By prioritizing federal lands for production and expediting permits, Trump is fulfilling promises to lower costs and create jobs. Yet, despite these advances, challenges remain. Trump’s approval rating hovers around 38-40 percent in August 2025 polls from Pew and Forbes, with tariffs drawing criticism for potential price hikes. However, supporters argue these are short-term pains for long-term gains, and his base remains steadfast amid media scrutiny.
Democrats, reeling from 2024, are plotting a revival. Early 2026 polls from RealClearPolling and Race to the WH show them with a slight edge in the generic congressional ballot, potentially flipping the House. Analysts at Vox note that despite low favorability, voter dissatisfaction with GOP policies could fuel gains, especially in battleground states.
Senate races look tougher for Democrats, with a map favoring Republicans. Cook Political Report rates several GOP-held seats as likely safe, but experts warn of historical midterm losses – the president’s party has dropped seats in nearly every cycle since World War II. NBC’s Steve Kornacki highlights headwinds like economic perceptions that could amplify Democratic attacks.
Polls from Fox News and CNN in mid-2025 reveal Democrats’ favorability at new lows, yet they lead in midterm preferences by slim margins. This paradox stems from anti-incumbent sentiment, with 41.7 percent of Americans feeling the country is on the right track under Trump – better than Biden’s era but vulnerable to shifts.
Republicans are countering with a proactive strategy. Trump is personally involved in primaries, endorsing candidates to solidify the MAGA bloc. Groups are investing millions in voter turnout efforts, emphasizing Trump’s successes to mobilize the base. Leaders like Senate Majority Leader John Thune are ready to intervene in races to ensure electable nominees.
The GOP’s playbook includes defending against Democratic narratives on healthcare and taxes. By framing midterms as a referendum on Trump’s progress – like border walls and energy booms – Republicans aim to remind voters of 2024’s lessons. Polls suggest this could work, with Trump’s coalition holding firm in key demographics.
A Democratic resurgence would spell disaster for Trump’s vision. With control of Congress, they could block judicial nominees, investigations into past scandals, and funding for priorities like deportation operations.
