The midterms are almost here. Both parties are nervous about the impending results.
And a top Republican gave an update on the midterms that will have you breathing a sigh of relief.
Republicans have every reason to tune out the doom-and-gloom midterm forecasts flooding the airwaves right now.
Texas Congressman Pat Fallon is not buying the narrative that Democrats are about to enjoy a triumphant election day next month, and he is saying so out loud.
On Fox Business Network’s The Evening Edit, Fallon pushed back hard against the idea that the polls should be taken at face value.
He argued that the numbers floating around are unreliable and that the press is working overtime to sap Republican energy.
“Congressman, the polls have been consistently wrong,” host Elizabeth MacDonald stated.
“They underestimated Trump in 2016 and in 2024. A study in 2024 of a hundred national and battleground polls found pollsters underestimated voter support for Republicans in 2024.”
“And look at this — The Washington Post just put out new analysis, they found that polls overestimated Democrat candidates by more than six points in Iowa, Michigan and Ohio Senate races — look at this from 2018 to 2024. This has been going on for a long time.”
Fallon wasted no time agreeing. The pattern is familiar to anyone who has watched the last several election cycles.
Pollsters miss the mark, the media runs with the bad numbers, and Republican voters are left wondering if the game is already over before the first ballot is cast.
“Nothing new at all. I was just on the road with Majority Leader Scalise, and we saw a lot of enthusiasm on the Republican side in Virginia and in North Carolina, and I suspect — and Liz, I will make this promise to you: Republicans will certainly outperform the polls,” Fallon stated in response.
“It’s just a question as to what degree because remember that garbage poll from 2024 that said that Harris was winning Iowa by three points? That was a joke. President Trump won that by double digits.”
That Iowa episode still stings for a reason. A supposedly serious survey had Kamala Harris ahead in a state Donald Trump eventually carried by a decisive margin.
The gap between the published numbers and the actual result was not a minor miss.
It was a complete misfire that should have produced more humility from the polling industry and the outlets that treated those figures like they were without error.
