Republicans are having a bit of a civil war. And it’s time to choose sides.
Now a lame duck GOP Senator hit Trump with a huge loss he’ll never forget.
A Lame Duck With Nothing Left To Lose
There is a certain logic to what Bill Cassidy did Tuesday. He lost his primary to Trump-backed Rep. Julia Letlow on Saturday, ending an eleven-year Senate career that had been shaped by one of the most consequential political decisions of the Trump era: his vote to convict Trump at the second impeachment trial in January 2021. Having paid the price for that vote — having been censured by his state party the same weekend, branded “disloyal,” and replaced by a candidate the president personally recruited — Cassidy entered his final months as a lame-duck senator with no remaining political incentive to hold the line.
On Tuesday he didn’t. The Louisiana Republican voted to advance the Senate’s eighth Iran war powers resolution, providing the decisive margin in a 50-47 vote that moved the measure past a procedural threshold it had repeatedly failed to clear. It marked the first time Cassidy had supported advancing the resolution after repeatedly voting against it throughout the war. He was joined by the three Republicans who have become the resolution’s consistent supporters — Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Susan Collins of Maine, and Rand Paul of Kentucky.
“Until the administration provides clarity, no congressional authorization or extension can be justified,” Cassidy said in a statement explaining his vote.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer framed the vote in maximalist terms. “Trump’s no closer to ending this war, no closer to bringing down the skyrocketing costs of this war, no closer to getting our troops out of harm’s way,” he said on the Senate floor. “Senate Republicans must not continue to allow Trump to remain stuck in this never-ending loop of threats and failed negotiations.”
What The Vote Actually Does — And What It Doesn’t
The procedural advancement of the war powers resolution is significant but not definitive. The measure still requires a final passage vote in the Senate before it can move to the House, and the precise timing of that vote has not been set. Three Republican senators — John Cornyn of Texas, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, and Tommy Tuberville of Alabama — were absent Tuesday. If all three return and vote against the resolution on final passage, the vote would deadlock at 50-50 and fail.
Even if the resolution passed both chambers, it would face a near-certain presidential veto. Democrats do not have the two-thirds majority in either chamber required to override. The war powers resolution has, throughout this conflict, served primarily as a vehicle for Democrats to put Republicans on the record and extract periodic displays of congressional resistance to executive authority — not as a legislative mechanism likely to actually constrain military operations.
Vance, for his part, signaled the administration’s posture before the vote, reiterating that Trump remained “locked and loaded” to restart military operations if Iran nuclear talks fail. The ceasefire Trump announced on April 7 remains in effect but fragile, with diplomatic talks proceeding slowly and Iran continuing to demand war reparations and sanction relief as preconditions for any deal. Trump disclosed Tuesday that he had been “an hour away” from ordering a major new attack against Iran before pulling back to allow negotiations more time.
Fetterman Holds — And The Stakes For The Midterms
Notably, Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania remained the sole Democrat to vote against advancing the resolution — his eighth consecutive vote against the war powers effort. Fetterman has been consistent and clear: he believes demanding that Iran surrender its nuclear material is a non-negotiable American interest, and he will not vote to limit the president’s ability to enforce that demand through military pressure. Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut declined to characterize Fetterman as the Democrats’ problem: “The responsibility isn’t on one senator, it’s on everybody who has the chance to cut funding off to this war.”
The broader political question the 50-47 vote raises is the one that will define the next several months. The Iran war remains a genuine liability for Republicans in competitive districts where cost-of-living concerns are dominant. Gas prices at $4-plus nationally, and well above that in blue states, trace directly to the Hormuz blockade. Polling shows overall economic approval at historic lows. Whether the war ends, or ends well, before November is the single most important variable in the midterm arithmetic — and neither Tuesday’s Senate vote nor any other congressional action has meaningfully altered the president’s ability to determine that outcome.
