The early vote tallies are rolling in. The results are genuinely shocking.
Because even CNN is admitting Trump is winning a critical swing state already.
The early voting era is here. Many Americans don’t like it, but even conservatives are starting to embrace the idea of turning out for their preferred candidates before Election Day actually arrives. This is evident by just how much better the turnout for Donald Trump is this cycle compared to in 2020.
In a notable shift among Republican voters, Donald Trump is making headlines for “winning the early vote” in Nevada, according to CNN political director David Chalian. On Tuesday, Chalian reported that 52% of Trump supporters in Nevada cast their ballots early, compared to 46% of Vice President Kamala Harris’s supporters who did the same.
The data highlights a significant trend, with Republicans comprising 35% of the early vote across 27 surveyed states, a rise from 28% in the 2020 elections. Chalian noted that in Arizona, over half of the respondents in a recent poll confirmed they had already voted, with nearly 50% reporting the same in Nevada. “In Arizona, those who have already voted, 53% for Harris, 44% for Trump,” he explained. “In Nevada, Donald Trump is winning the early vote right now, those that tell us they’ve voted, 52% to 46%.”
In Arizona, Republicans accounted for 43% of the early vote as of Tuesday, marking an increase from 36% in 2020. In contrast, Democratic turnout has decreased from 41% to 35%. Pennsylvania also saw a notable increase in early voting among Republicans, with a jump of 20% since the last election, while Democratic early voter turnout fell from 70% to 59%.
Trump, who has previously criticized early voting, is now encouraging his supporters in key battleground states to participate in this voting method. Reports from Mohave County, Arizona, indicated a strong turnout of Trump supporters for early voting, with none publicly expressing support for Harris, as noted by NBC News’ Vaughn Hillyard.
This shift appears to reflect a broader trend, as Republicans are gaining traction in battleground states by adopting strategies historically utilized by Democrats. ABC News Political Director Rick Klein has also highlighted this development, indicating a significant transformation in voter dynamics as the election approaches.
🚨Arizona Early Voting Update:
Returned Ballots / Voted Early:
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
🔴 678,080 – 41.9% (+7.9)
🔵 550,737 – 34.0%
🟡 389,166 – 24.1%Turnout by Party so Far:
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
🔴 43.6%
🔵 43.6%
🟡 25.2%— CHIZ 🇺🇸 (@CHIZMAGA) October 29, 2024
Winning Arizona will be critical for Donald Trump to head down the path to earn 270 electoral votes. Winning Arizona would allow for him to lose Pennsylvania and still win if he were to manage to flip either Michigan or Wisconsin.
A win in Arizona would also make it more likely that Trump is able to flip Nevada red, something a Republican presidential candidate hasn’t been able to do since George Bush was able to win the state twice in 2000 and 2004.
Arizona is the big one though with its eleven electoral votes. It also has a close Senate race that will be crucial for the U.S. Senate political map when the dust has settled in November after the election. Kari Lake is entrenched in a tight election with opponent Ruben Gallego that has been a major focus for both major political parties in America.
Kari Lake has been lagging behind Gallego by a few points consistently over the past few weeks, but this is often within the margin of error. Any under-prediction of Kari Lake’s performance, as often is the case with Republican candidates, could make the election much tighter than the polls say right now.
📊 ARIZONA POLL: @Data_Orbital
🟥 Trump: 49.7% (+7.8)
🟦 Harris: 41.9%
🟪 Other: 2.0%
——
AZ Senate
🟥 Lake: 45.2% (+0.7)
🟦 Gallego: 44.5%
🟪 Other: 1.6%#8 (2.8/3.0) | 10/26-28 | 550 LV | ±4.26https://t.co/f0qlS4G1kE pic.twitter.com/WGwtGrFNNX
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 29, 2024
The Conservative Column will keep you informed on any major early voting reports.
